The Comeback
Performance since launch
No backtest yet
About this strategy
Trades Kalshi's live NBA game-winner markets while the game is being played, backing the trailing side when Kalshi's price has chased a scoring run past what a mechanical win-probability model supports. Regular season and playoffs only. Live-only.
How it works
- Agent triggers
A run starts while at least one NBA game is in progress. It checks every few minutes, with specific polling intervals during the game and a pregame news check.
- Computes its signals
It reads the current quarter, clock, and score for each game. It compares a win-probability model against Kalshi's market price and targets the trailing side when undervalued.
- Sets the target portfolio
The target mix consists of positions on the trailing side, sized according to the discount below fair value, limited to one position per game as needed.
- Executes orders
Your account trades toward the target while holding cash in the absence of qualifying opportunities. It sells before buys, inside the platform's risk rails: stop-loss and daily loss limits you control.
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Backtests
* Backtest figures are simulated based on historical market data. Past performance is not indicative of future results.