The GDP Nowcast
Performance since launch
No backtest yet
About this strategy
Trades Kalshi's quarterly real-GDP-growth ladder, buying the legs priced below the average of the Atlanta Fed and New York Fed nowcasts by a margin that clears the fee. Live-only.
How it works
- Agent triggers
Starts daily at 12:25 PM when the market is open. The agent trades only live data from Kalshi.
- Computes its signals
It scans quarterly real-GDP-growth markets and reads published nowcasts from the Atlanta and New York Feds. It acts when market prices deviate from the calculated fair value by clearing trading costs.
- Sets the target portfolio
It forms a target portfolio based on buying legs of the ladder priced below the average of the two nowcasts, committing up to a capped amount per quarter. It holds until settlement.
- Executes orders
Your account trades towards the target, selling before buying, inside the platform's risk rails, including stop-loss and daily loss limits you control.
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Backtests
* Backtest figures are simulated based on historical market data. Past performance is not indicative of future results.