The Heat Dome
Performance since launch
No backtest yet
About this strategy
Trades Kalshi's hottest-year and hottest-month climate markets, buying the leg when it is priced below the record probability NOAA has already published. Live-only.
How it works
- Agent triggers
Starts daily at 12:55 PM when Kalshi's climate markets open. Temperature record contracts, specifically on a year or month.
- Computes its signals
It reads NOAA's published probability for temperature records, adjusting it slightly toward the market price. It trades when Kalshi's price is lower than that adjusted fair value by a significant margin.
- Sets the target portfolio
Each qualifying position is a small fraction of the account, forming a whole target mix for the trading period. The agent holds positions until settlement.
- Executes orders
Your account trades toward that target, selling before buying, inside the platform's risk rails: stop-loss and daily loss limits you control.
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Backtests
* Backtest figures are simulated based on historical market data. Past performance is not indicative of future results.