The Executive Action
Performance since launch
No backtest yet
About this strategy
Trades Kalshi's count ladders on executive and legislative activity (executive orders signed, bills signed into law, tariff actions), buying the rungs priced below a Poisson fair value built from the running count and the recent rate in the public record. Live-only.
How it works
- Agent triggers
A run starts daily at 1:20 PM when the trading window opens. It operates specifically within live market hours.
- Computes its signals
It scans Kalshi's count ladders for executive and legislative actions, comparing recorded counts to Poisson fair value prices. It decides to act only if significant discrepancies favor buying.
- Sets the target portfolio
The target portfolio consists of rungs priced below fair value, influenced by a fixed maximum position size for each window. Each position is held to settlement based on the event count.
- Executes orders
Your account trades toward the target by selling before buying, operating within the platform's risk rails: stop-loss and daily loss limits you control.
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Backtests
* Backtest figures are simulated based on historical market data. Past performance is not indicative of future results.